Libya coming to a head?

StrategyPage seems to be of the opinion that Muammar Gadhafi's days in Libya are numbered:

Given the rate at which rebels are pushing back Kaddafi troops, and the effects of the air and sea blockade of Kaddafi controlled western Libya, Kaddafi is not expected to last more than three months. Kaddafi now has a goal. If he can hang on into October, the coalition fighting him might fall apart, enabling some kind of peace deal that would partition the country. But with the embargo and war crimes indictments, that is unlikely. Kaddafi is a fugitive in his own capital, constantly moving to avoid NATO bomb attacks. U.S. and NATO intelligence, using rebel sympathizers, is constantly updating their map of who is where in Tripoli. While military targets have priority, a suspected Kaddafi sighting will always get at least one smart bomb. NATO military planners keep score of Kaddafi's military strength (which is kept secret, lest it provide useful information to Kaddafi military or intelligence forces), and the trend has been down, more sharply of late. That, plus the difficulty supplying millions of civilians under his control, is why NATO believes Kaddafi won't last another hundred days. It's been about a hundred days since NATO began its military operations in Libya. Meanwhile, the rebels have gotten better on the battlefield, and behind the lines. The rebel coalition is holding together, and each day, rebel fighters gain more combat experience, and more of them come out of NATO training programs. Some NATO troops are on the ground in rebel-held Libya, to conduct training or assist with coordinating the bombing.

Read more »